AAS Economics provides a range of research services to wholesale and institutional clients. This range includes a variety of regular reports as well as bespoke modelling of particular economies, markets or groups of markets. The principal periodic reports delivered by AAS Economics are described below. Please contact us for more information regarding these reports or to learn more about our customised research and model-building services.
EcoFlash is our weekly analysis and forecasting publication where we apply our monetary and econometric expertise in predicting likely trends in world economies and markets..
Markets covered range from developed to emerging economies and forecast variables include GDP, industrial production, inflation, bond yields and stock indices.
Please see the example below and feel free to contact us for more information.
Quantitative Asset Allocation
The monetary and econometric analysis developed by AAS Economics enables prediction of the stages of the business cycle. Different assets perform differently in each of these stages.
It is thus possible to identify in advance, using the forecast stage of the cycle, how a portfolio should be weighted for optimum performance based on historical relationships.
This is precisely the approach taken by AAS Economics. We forecast the stage of the cycle using a four-stage approach and then, based on those forecasts and historical analysis of performance of equities, bonds and commodities during those stages, we allocate capital across these assets.
Equity allocations are subdivided into the various GIC sectors according to their historical performance in the relevant stage, while bonds are benchmark governments and commodities are either commodity ETFs or the stock sectors Energy and Basic Materials.
Geographies covered by this asset allocation model include:
Prospective allocations are provided to clients each month along with the record of historical performance of the process.
Please contact us for more information about our asset allocation research or review the example below.
Multi-Country Sector Selection
Some sectors of the equity market perform better than others at different stages of the economic cycle. If one can accurately forecast the cycle then it should be possible to accurately choose which sectors to overweight and which either to underweight or remove altogether.
As with the Business Cycle Asset Allocation report, AAS Economics breaks the business cycle into an analytical four stages. Stages 1 and 4 are typically the most difficult stages and sector allocations are most likely to be more defensive. Stages 2 and 3 are typically recovery and growth phases and therefore the sectors allocated reflect this economic reality.
Portfolio managers are able to use this sector selection approach to either replicate the sectors themselves (e.g. through sector index baskets or ETFs) or through selecting their own preferred stocks within each sector.
Countries covered include:
A sample report can be downloaded below and more information can be obtained by contacting us.
Money Supply & Macro
Each month AAS Economics applies its unique monetary analysis to discuss and forecast economic and market trends in a core group of countries. This group includes The US, Eurozone, China, Japan, Australia and Canada.
In addition, where standout themes emerge from the analysis other, more specialised situations are presented along with their implications.
This publication is an ideal macroeconomic scene-setter for asset allocators and investment managers and facilitates big picture views with specific econometric forecasts for key countries in relation to:
Other variables modelled include specific commodity prices (e.g. crude oil, iron ore, gold) and exchange rates.
Contact us for more information or see the sample below.
Corporate Debt Selection
Corporate Debt Selection applies AASE's proprietary business cycle analysis to generate model corporate bond portfolios across numerous countries. Just as different sectors in the equities markets behave differently at different stages of the cycle, so too do different corporate bonds. Published monthly. Contact us for more information.
Flash Fed Report
Each week the US Federal Reserve publishes monetary statistics. These statistics have enormous significance for the course of monetary growth and therefore for predictions of the business cycle and asset markets.
Key among these monetary statistics is the central bank's balance sheet, reflecting purchases and sales of assets by the Fed from the US banking sector. This is a key indicator of the Fed's monetary stance and a key measure of its level of monetary pumping or contraction.
AAS Economics publishes a weekly analysis of changes in the Fed's balance sheet.
The Manufacturing PMI is one of the most closely watched of world indicators. We apply our forecasting framework to predict the trajectories of several of the world's most important PMIs.
Flash US AMS Report
AMS (Adjusted Money Supply) is a critical variable in the monetary framework developed and deployed by AAS Economics.
AMS is a proprietary reformulation of basic monetary data that facilitates the modelling of economic variables and asset prices in a large range of countries.
The Flash US AMS Report allows clients to gain a quick insight each week into the course of this key monetary aggregate in the United States.
A sample is below but further information regarding this report can be obtained by contacting us.